\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t Economic activity rose sharply in March to a new all-time high, with growth of 3.5% from the previous month and 5.5% year-on-year, led by strong performances in agriculture, industry and mining.<\/p>\n
It was the biggest monthly increase since Javier Milei took office, according to statistics institute INDEC\u2019s Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE).<\/p>\n
After the jump, March activity stood 6.6% above the level of November 2023 just before Milei\u2019s election victory and at its highest point since at least 2004.<\/p>\n
Ivn Cachanosky, chief economist at the right-wing think tank Fundacin Libertad y Progreso, said \u201cthe March EMAE confirmed what was expected, and the economy bounced back strongly.\u201d<\/p>\n
He explained that February \u201cwas the bottom of the cycle,\u201d because the first two months of the year are structurally tricky months \u201csummer holidays, lower industrial output, and in this case a general strike and two fewer business days.\u201d<\/p>\n
In March, manufacturing grew 4.6% year-on-year and commerce 2.2%, adding to the momentum already coming from energy, up 5.7%, mining, up 16.3%, and construction, which rebounded 7.6%.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat stands out about the data isn\u2019t just the headline number but the composition,\u201d Cachanosky said, noting that 14 of the 15 sectors grew year-on-year. Public administration and defense were the only ones to contract, down 1.2%.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s a sharp departure from the pattern of previous months, when the economy was showing a marked split mining and agriculture surging while industry and commerce slumped,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Dissenting voices Not everyone shares the optimism. Hernn Herrera, head of economics at the center-left think tank Instituto Argentina Grande (IAG), told the Herald that the strong March 2026 number compared with the same month of 2025 owes mostly to a weak base of comparison.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor both activity and industry, March 2025 was a very difficult month. Almost every sector was stalled, because they were waiting to see what would happen with the exchange-rate regime, which was overhauled in April,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
He also stressed the lingering hit to industry, noting that in the first quarter of 2026 the sector was 10.5% below the first quarter of 2023 before Milei\u2019s adjustment began.<\/p>\n
Herrera added that some categories within the EMAE \u201care working against the economy as a whole.\u201d For example, he said, \u201cwhen subsidies are cut or real interest rates rise, that isn\u2019t helping aggregate demand or output.\u201d<\/p>\n
The road ahead Cachanosky argued that \u201cthe unevenness we\u2019ve been seeing shouldn\u2019t be read as an anomaly, but as the expected outcome of an economy that is reshaping its production base after 60 years of protectionism.\u201d<\/p>\n
There is no consensus on what comes next. The Fundacin Libertad y Progreso economist expects that \u201cwith inflation easing and no election noise this year, demand for pesos will normalize and consumption which had gone quiet because of the electoral uncertainty in September and October last year will start to pick up.\u201d<\/p>\n
Herrera, on the other hand, didn\u2019t rule out a slowdown. He ruled out any short-term recovery except in mining and oil. \u201cIn fact, we may well see more trouble,\u201d he said. \u201cThat\u2019s where there\u2019s something genuine happening,\u201d he added, referring to those sectors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Economic activity rose sharply in March to a new all-time high, with growth of 3.5% from the previous month and 5.5% year-on-year, led by strong performances in agriculture, industry and mining. It was the biggest monthly increase since Javier Milei took office, according to statistics institute INDEC\u2019s Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE). After the jump, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":261,"featured_media":66091,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42,6309,3183],"tags":[96,17108,4434],"class_list":["post-66090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economics","category-emae","category-indec","tag-economics","tag-emae","tag-indec"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66090","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/261"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66090"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66090\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66091"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66090"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66090"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66090"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}