\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t After seven months of accelerating monthly inflation, prices may have finally taken a breather in April, according to private consulting firms. Their estimates put April\u2019s price increase at 2.4% to 2.6% month-on-month the first monthly slowdown in 11 months.<\/p>\n
Official figures will be released by statistics institute INDEC on Thursday, May 14.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The number would bring some relief to President Javier Milei\u2019s administration, whose main political asset and campaign promise bringing inflation down has been called into question by the recent price rebound.<\/p>\n
In May 2025, monthly inflation came in at 1.5%, the lowest reading since June 2020, in the thick of the COVID-19 pandemic. Prices have been climbing every month since. In March 2026,inflation hit 3.4% the highest level since March 2025.<\/p>\n
Food prices led the cooldown The Fundacin Libertad y Progreso, a free-market think tank aligned with the government, projects April inflation to hover around 2.4%.<\/p>\n
\u201cDisinflation is back on track, propped up by the strength of the fiscal surplus, which remains the fundamental anchor of the process, alongside an exchange rate that has held steady since November,\u201d said Toms Amerio, an economist at Fundacin Libertad y Progreso.<\/p>\n
According to the think tank, the slowdown was driven by a softening in food and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as clothing.<\/p>\n
C&T and Equilibra, two other firms that track the prices, reached the same conclusion, both pegging the price increase at 2.4%.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cBeef was decisive, rising only 2% the slowest pace since September of last year. Lower prices for fruits and vegetables added to the trend,\u201d said Equilibra.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Utilities also helped cool the index, with smaller increases in gas and electricity keeping a lid on the housing category.<\/p>\n
C&T flagged the strong impact of education-related prices on the March reading due to the start of the school year, an effect that didn\u2019t repeat in April.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cFor the INDEC, that category was up 12% in March, while for April we estimate a rise closer to 5%,\u201d the consultancy said.<\/p>\n
Other firms came in slightly higher. The think tank Orlando Ferreres & Asociados projected April inflation at 2.6%, the same figure as LCG and Econviews.<\/p>\n
\u201cOn one hand, we\u2019re seeing a significant slowdown in food. Our price tracking shows a 1% increase for that category. That\u2019s a big help,\u201d Alejandro Giacoia, an economist at Econviews, told the Herald.<\/p>\n
\u201cOn the negative side, regulated prices are still running high. There\u2019s some carryover from the gasoline hike that\u2019s going to feed into the April data,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
C&T estimated that gasoline rose 4%, \u201creflecting the rise in international oil prices.\u201d The consultancy agreed that \u201cmuch of the increase came from a carryover effect from March, since prices began to stabilize from the second week of April.\u201d<\/p>\n
The road ahead \u201cOver the coming months, we\u2019ll likely keep seeing monthly inflation closer to 2%, and by the second quarter even below that,\u201d said Ivn Cachanosky, chief economist at Fundacin Libertad y Progreso.<\/p>\n
\u201cWith election noise out of the way, the money supply frozen and demand for pesos normalizing, the fundamentals are there to expect inflation to keep coming down,\u201d he argued.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cOf course, we\u2019ll have to keep an eye on the war in the Middle East and whether the conflict spreads.\u201d<\/p>\n
Giacoia echoed that view, saying \u201cthe months ahead are likely to be calmer\u201d and that \u201cwe can expect inflation lower than in April.\u201d<\/p>\n
Melisa Sala, chief economist at LCG, told the Herald that inflation inertia is the main reason the government has struggled to bring inflation down sustainably.<\/p>\n
Sala added that the Argentine economy is now in a scenario \u201cin which the exchange rate anchor is being used again, trade openness is disciplining prices, and sluggish activity is keeping a lid on wage-price pressures.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThe fact that inflation expectations haven\u2019t been broken is what\u2019s keeping core inflation the inertia comfortably above 2% a month,\u201d she explained.<\/p>\n
\u201cOn top of that, some months you get hit by fuel adjustments tied to the war in the Middle East, by beef, or by utility-rate hikes meant to finish phasing out subsidies,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n
Martn Rapetti, executive director at Equilibra, said that while the April number \u201cis a significant drop from March,\u201d it\u2019s important \u201cnot to confuse a moment with a trend.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cUnderlying inflation the trend rate remains stable in the 2.0%-2.5% monthly range. Bringing it down to international standards will take time and patience. Trying to rush the process can only lead to less activity and an overvalued exchange rate. Obviously, with all the risks that entails,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
According to the latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) by the Central Bank, the top 10 forecasters projected April CPI at 2.7%, gradually falling to 2% by October 2026.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella (UTDT) inflation expectations survey for April found that nationwide expected inflation over the next 30 days averaged 3.93% and was 3% at the median.<\/p>\n
Photo credit: Mariano Fuchila<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
After seven months of accelerating monthly inflation, prices may have finally taken a breather in April, according to private consulting firms. Their estimates put April\u2019s price increase at 2.4% to 2.6% month-on-month the first monthly slowdown in 11 months. Official figures will be released by statistics institute INDEC on Thursday, May 14.\u00a0 The number would […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":261,"featured_media":61322,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42,3183,690],"tags":[96,4434,3152],"class_list":["post-61321","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economics","category-indec","category-inflation","tag-economics","tag-indec","tag-inflation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61321","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/261"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61321"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61321\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61322"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61321"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61321"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/service.codeus.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61321"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}