It was last April that Economy Minister Luis Caputo predicted that the coming months would be the best for the Argentine economy in decades. A little over three months after that assessment, that scenario is still far off.
Research centers, think tanks, and consulting firms that track the Argentine economy report that the first half of 2026 was marked by stagnation in most sectors, mainly those tied to domestic consumption. The only ones that continue to show resilience are those related to the primary sector energy, mining, and agriculture which are experiencing record exports.
An uneven economy The economic research center Orlando Ferres & Asociados (in Spanish, OJF) recently estimated that June saw a monthly improvement of 0.4% and a year-over-year increase of 1.9%.
Cumulative growth for the first six months of the year, however, is just 0.1%.
OJF also reported a 6.2% year-over-year decline in gross investment for June. For the first half of the year, the decline stands at 7.6%.
The consulting firm Eco Go, on the other hand, estimated that economic activity in June grew by just 0.1% both year-over-year and month-over-month. Accumulated growth for 2026 shows a 0.5% decline.
On a monthly basis, the sharp increase in fishing (+27.3%) and the growth in mining and quarrying (+1.3%) stood out. Argentinas mining exports hit a new all-time high in the first four months of 2026, driven by surging demand for lithium, gold, and silver from the United States, China, and Switzerland.
Meanwhile, manufacturing (-1.8%) and construction (-1.2%) declined once again.
Consulting firm Equilibra estimated that economic activity rose 1% year-over-year in June. The month-to-month variation, however, was zero, a figure standing nearly 2% below what was registered last March on the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE), the month in which this INDEC metric scored the highest ever since the current tracking started in 2016.
Equilibra estimated that the second quarter of the year showed a decline of nearly 1% compared to the first quarter. The drop was driven by a 2.5% fall in primary sectors and a 0.5% decline in non-primary sectors.
Economic activity for the first half of the year, meanwhile, ended with a 1.6% increase compared to the same period in 2025, an improvement entirely driven by primary sectors.
In fact, were it not for the 11.6% rise in primary sectors during the first half of the year, economic activity would have fallen by 0.2% during that period.
Outlook for the second semester OJF expects economic activity in the coming months to maintain a mild upward trend thanks to momentum from the economys most dynamic sectors.
Sectors lagging behind like manufacturing and commerce, on the other hand, are expected to show gradual improvement, as domestic consumption reflects a sustained improvement.
Equilibra stated that, if its estimate for June activity is confirmed, its growth projection for 2026 is likely to be 2%.
In any case, that estimate is significantly lower than the 3.5% growth rate the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had projected for Argentina in 2026.
That does not mean the IMF is not concerned about the mixed performance of the Argentine economy. In her recent press conference in Buenos Aires, IMF head Kristalina Georgieva addressed the issue of an uneven economy, asking what could be done to get growth in Argentina to be more broadly shared.