By VICTORIA CHURCHILL, US POLITICAL REPORTER
Published: | Updated:
Traders on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are betting heavily on a US government shutdown by week’s end — amid outrage over the shooting of a legally armed protestor by a Border Patrol agent Saturday.
Shutdown odds jumped 10 percentage points to above 75 percent following Saturday’s fatal shooting of Alex Pretti by Border Patrol agents in Minneapolison the regulated exchange and prediction market site Kalshi.
Senate Democratshold the keys to avoiding a shutdown. Spending bills require 60 votes, meaning Republicans who hold just 53 seats need Democratic support even if their entire caucus backs the House-passed measures.
Funding expires at the end of January – this Saturday – without Senate action.
Seven Democratic senators previously sided with Republicans in November to end the last shutdown: Catherine Cortez Masto, Dick Durbin, John Fetterman, Maggie Hassan, Tim Kaine, Jacky Rosen, and Jeanne Shaheen. Independent Angus King of Maine, who caucuses with Democrats, joined them.
Now, Department of Homeland Security funding threatens to derail the package putting those same moderate Democrats in a bind.
King told CBS’s ‘Face the Nation’ on Sunday: ‘I can’t vote for a bill that includes ICE funding in these circumstances, what they are doing in my state, what we saw yesterday in Minneapolis.’ He noted he ‘hates’ shutdowns and helped negotiate the solution to end the last one.
Rosen called for Homeland Security Secretary Noem to be ‘impeached and removed from office immediately’ in a Sunday post on X, calling her ‘an abject failure.’
The moment that the firearm of a man identified as Alex Pretti is retrieved from a waistband holster by a federal officer (in light grey jacket, crouched) as another officer (in green) draws his weapon, before Pretti was fatally shot in Minneapolis, Minnesota, U.S., January 24, 2026 is seen in a still image of a video obtained by Reuters
Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, a Nevada Democrat, speaks at a press conference with other Senate Democrats who voted to restore government funding, in Washington, DC on November 9, 2025
Senator John Fetterman, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, is seen at the US Capitol, in Washington, DC, on September 30, 2025
Even before the Pretti shooting, Kaine raised concerns Friday about the House funding bills, objecting to six bundled bills forced into a single up-or-down vote.
Fetterman has defended ICE agents, saying they ‘are just doing their job, and I fully support that,’ while criticizing Democrats who ‘treat them as criminals.’ His approval rating hit 51 percent Monday, according to the latest Morning Consult poll. In a Monday afternoon statement, Fetterman noted that he wanted DHS funding stripped from the package of government funding bills.
House Democrat Tom Suozzi told supporters in a Monday campaign email that he ‘failed’ by voting for the DHS bill, saying he ‘failed to view the DHS funding vote as a referendum on the illegal and immoral conduct of ICE in Minneapolis.’
Some Republicans are also skeptical. Rep. Michael McCaul and Sens. Thom Tillis, Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, and Lisa Murkowski have pressed for more information, signaling bipartisan concern.
House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Andrew Garbarino requested testimony from ICE, Customs and Border Protection, and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services leaders, saying his ‘top priority remains keeping Americans safe.’