Pete Hegsethhas weathered a string of scandals in his first year, including a controversial air strike in the Caribbean and the Signal-gate national security leak.
But high-ranking Pentagon staff are betting the Secretary of War won’t last much longer, running clandestine ‘betting pools’ on the date of his removal as they describe the atmosphere under his command as a precarious game of survival.
Money is changing hands between officers, with varying odds offered on whether Hegseth hits the one-year and 18-month mark, three Army staff told the Daily Mail.
That would place his departure – or ouster – around July 2026.
The sweepstakes are ongoing in various offices, described as fantasy football-style games that act as a ‘coping mechanism’ for personnel who say Hegseth runs the Pentagon like the unruly Army captain he once was rather than a distinguished Cabinet secretary.
‘There are a lot of people in each group – maybe 20 or 30. They are all mostly done on text or Signal because nobody wants to get caught doing that on an official platform,’ the source explained.
Insiders say Hegseth’s downfall could come as a result of misplaced priorities, like an obsessive focus on uniforms and facial hair over a pressing national security threat or military mishap, according to one army source.
This internal friction is reflected in the current betting markets, where Hegseth’s job security is increasingly viewed as volatile.
Jennifer Rauchet and U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth attend the 48th Kennedy Center Honors at The Kennedy Center on December 7
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth walks by the Brigade of Midshipman before the start of the game between the Navy Midshipmen and the Air Force Falcons at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium on October 4
An exclusive look inside senior offices of the Department of War reveals a catastrophic breakdown in trust and confidence. Insiders accuse Hegseth of having the wrong priorities, while expressing deep alarm over his handling of the recent controversial Caribbean boat strikes
The revelations come as the Secretary of War faces intense scrutiny over the lethal airstrikes on a drug boat in the Caribbean, where his own support in Congress appears to be wavering
According toKalshi, Hegseth remains among the top contenders in the ‘Next Cabinet Member Out,’ his odds having spiked following the controversy surrounding the video of a double strike on an alleged drug boat in the Caribbean.
Hegseth has eroded some trust inside the Pentagon with sudden firings of top commanders sparking paranoia among colleagues, according to insiders. The atmosphere was likened to ‘Game of Thrones’ by one senior staffer whose boss works closely with the Secretary of War.
That same staffer describes conversations taking place between colleagues where they compare Hegseth to Saddam Hussein and the ‘purge’ in Iraq in which he publicly accused members of his own party of treason.
The controversial boat strikes on drug smugglers in the Caribbean, as well as his fiery rhetoric and memes posted on social media have further fueled concern.
‘Nobody knows who’s going to be removed. Something could happen at any moment,’ the source said, adding some leaders have been ‘retired very, very quickly’ or found new jobs under Hegseth’s rule.
Another staffer said Hegseth appeared to be safe for now, but it was only a matter of time before another scandal would force President Trump to act.
‘How has he not been fired yet?’ he asked. ‘The president hasn’t reached his tipping point we are hearing but there will be a straw that breaks the camels back.’
However, Trump has praised Hegseth and defended him consistently.
During the final Cabinet meeting of the year, the President offered a full-throated defense of his administration, singling out the Secretary of War for special praise to dispel rumors of a rift. ‘Pete Hegseth has been phenomenal… I read a story that I was unhappy with Pete… I would say very much the opposite.’
A Capitol Hill insider tells Daily Mail it’s well known in the halls of Congress that Trump is making Hegseth the scapegoat in case things go sideways
Following a tense, closed-door briefing with senators on Capitol Hill earlier this Hegseth argued last week that he wouldn’t release the full video of the double strike on survivors to the public, and that it would jeopardize their operations.
However, this appeal to ‘national security’ is being increasingly framed by critics as a shield to hide potential violations of international law.
While most Republican lawmakers have rallied behind the Secretary, the defense is not entirely uniform. High-ranking Republicans like Senator Roger Wicker, chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, initially called for ‘vigorous oversight’ into the reports.
Democrats have been demanding the administration release full footage from the strikes.
However, despite the politics, internal dissent within the ranks remains high.
The Army source added that given the boat was headed toward Europe and not the US, it didn’t even ‘pose a threat to us specifically’ making the action even harder to justify.
The multiple ‘betting pools’ or ‘sweepstakes’ are reportedly running in various Pentagon offices, which are described as a ‘fantasy football thing’ and a ‘coping mechanism’ for Army personnel
This growing disillusionment with Hegseth is compounded by what insiders perceive as an unhealthy obsession with narrative control, as evidenced by their replacement of the press corp and ushering in of the ‘new media.’
Many high-level Pentagon personnel tell Daily Mail they are ‘mad’ at the ban on speaking with ‘credentialed, reputable press.’
‘Sometimes we go on media blackouts where they tell us we can’t post anything or speak to anyone in media. And it comes in waves without an explanation,’ two sources explain.
But another source familiar with the Foreign Relations Committee on Capitol Hill says Hegseth has lasted so long because he is ‘a lot more capable’ than public impression suggests, and is not ‘an idiot’ or ‘inexperienced.’
‘Listen, the more he gets attacked directly, the more I think President Trump will defend him. That is what we have seen so far,’ the committee source said.
As for what the future has in store for the Secretary of War, Army staffers sigh heavily.
‘Everyone is just waiting for the one-year mark to pass,’ two sources said.